27/11/06
A tipping point could come if the current approach to sustainable investment was called into question by an urgent requirement for carbon reduction.
In the climate change community (all of us) the buzz of the moment is 'tipping point'. The phrase has origins in sociology but serves to add tension in many situations. To climate campaigners it seems to be the point when a linear movement in global temperatures is replaced by a step change. But it has other implications, for example when catastrophic change is probable rather than possible.
Green policy people know when they are on to something. Another tipping point is that yearned-for moment when environmental policy goes mainstream. That moment may be now. Politicans of all parties are vying to show their commitment. The climate is high profile in the media. Sceptics (even in the US) are converting in numbers.
What price sustainable investment now?
What of water policy in the face of this remarkable shift? The tipping point could come when the light begins to dawn that our sustainable investment model, matured over years, might have to be turned upside down.
This may sound extreme, but how would you answer the following questions?
• What share of future investment will be directed at mitigating carbon impacts?
• We are already investing in adaptation to climate change – how much will it cost to maintain the level of service we enjoy now?
• Will future plans for investment in environmental quality be affected?
• How will customers and investors react to the redefinition of sustainability and redirection of policy that may be needed?
No one knows the answers, hence the ferment of debate. But pointers to the scale of the investment requirement are emerging.
Mitigation first. Moving to lower carbon operations should partly pay for itself. Water companies are ahead of the game in their use of energy (14% is from renewable sources, compared to less than 3% in other industries). But more sustainable (ie less carbon-hungry) water and wastewater treatment will mean more innovation, more research and different ways of doing things. Water efficiency and recycling must go on improving. It is clear to all that tighter standards and the widening scope of environmental regulation could conflict with progress in cutting emissions.
When it comes to adaptation the tipping point could be even more dramatic.
Adapt and survive
Not very long ago it was heresy in environmental circles to even mention adaptation: so great was the concern to raise awareness of global warming and its causes. No more. In September The British Association for the Advancement of Science made a plea for more focus on adaptation. The Association of British Insurers hosted meetings at all 3 major party conferences this year entitled 'Climate Change – Adapt and Survive'. And at the Environment Agency board meeting in September the chairman said, "Adaptation must be at the heart of the UK’s strategy for living with the unavoidable climate change we will inevitably face over the coming decades."
Flooding is already a threat to treatment works and pumping stations in some coastal and inland areas. Reservoirs and dams could silt up if soil erosion increases. Risk of slippage to embankments from intense rainfall will increase. Pipe systems will be more prone to damage with soil movement caused by soil drying and contracting and freeze-thaw cycles.
New scenario
Then there is wastewater infrastructure. Where once it was the cost of the water framework directive that kept operators, investors and customer representatives awake at night (and still does) a new scarier scenario is emerging.
Research for the Environment Agency shows a big increase in combined sewer overflow spill volumes. Traditional solutions would require very high levels of investment. Meanwhile the Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence project shows the potential impacts on urban drainage and sewer flooding. Some brave cost estimates forecast the need for some £17 billion extra capital expenditure by 2080.
There are reassuring noises at big picture level. 'Green growth' will allow life and business to carry on with limited interference as long as we interfere with enough determination now. This is the basis of the Stern Review the publication of which many see as a tipping point in international awareness. The attitudes of the public, customers and consumers will matter very much. Leadership will be crucial.
In 'An inconvenient truth' Al Gore says memorably that political will is a renewable resource. Let us hope he is right.
Barrie Clarke
A version of this article appears n Water & Waste Treatment magazine, November 2006.
